Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018
This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
