Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
